So much has happened in the AFC since the start of the 2022 NFL season over four months ago, but now, just like last season, only the Chiefs and Bengals are left to fight for the championship. of the conference. Some things have changed over the past 12 months, but one thing has proven to be a constant: Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow are the best quarterbacks in football. We’ll sort out everything you need to know from a betting perspective for what is expected to be another epic clash of the AFC titans.
Whether walking, limping or jumping, Mahomes was not to be denied a victory at the finish line of last week’s divisional tilt. The Jacksonville defense clearly got some good shots on the former MVP, including a sprained ankle that knocked him off the field for a streak that must have been heartbreaking for the Arrowhead faithful. After backup Chad Henne led Kansas City to a 98-yard touchdown, Mahomes came back in the second half, and Travis Kelce (14 catches, 98 yards, two TDs) and Isiah Pacheco helped him kill Trevor Lawrence and the impressive young Jags 27 -20.
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For the Bengals, a second straight AFC title berth never seemed to be in doubt. Sure, they were a little salty for not playing on neutral ground, but in the end, it was Burrow and company who seemed to have home-court advantage in Buffalo. They scored two quick touchdowns and smothered Josh Allen and the Bills the rest of the way, eventually winning 27-10 in a game that looked more like 35-3.
There are so many similar scenarios in this one beyond elite QBs. Each team also has upper-echelon pass-catchers, with Kelce flirting with GOAT tight-end status and the tandem of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins already claiming to be the best wide-receiving duo in the NFL. Pacheco, who looked raw earlier in the season, proved just as effective as Bengals veteran Joe Mixon. Even pass-catching fullbacks – Jerick McKinnon for KC and Samaje Perine for Cincy – play a pivotal role for these teams.
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The under-the-radar scenario this weekend is that every team has a good underhand defense, and those teams might get along even better. than they did at this point last postseason. This is sure to be an unforgettable match, one that anyone with even a little interest in pigskin will tune in to see.
Let’s prepare for the Bengals-Chiefs from a betting perspective, diving into odds, tips, trends and storylines and ultimately making our prediction for what should be an epic Sunday night of football.
Betting odds sourced from BetMGM
Bengals odds with Chiefs for NFL Divisional Round playoff game
- Broadcast: Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
- Propagate: Bengals -2.5 (-110) | Leaders +2.5 (-110)
- Money line: Bengal -135 | Leaders +115
- More less : Approx 46.5 (-110) | At 46.5 (-110)
After opening as -2.5 favorites, the Chiefs now find themselves +2.5 underdogs at home for only the second time in the Patrick Mahomes era. Mahomes’ ankle injury is the main reason for the gap, which gradually increased by half a point throughout the start of the week after the ankle sprain was announced. The first time bettors listed Mahomes as a home dog was earlier this season against the Bills, who were killed by Burrow and his boys last week at Orchard Park. Dating back to 1991, the only time Kansas City was the playoff underdog at home was in January 2011 against the Ravens, who covered the three-point spread and beat the Chiefs 30-7 in the round of jokers.
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Bengals at Chiefs all-time series
These teams have faced each other 32 times in NFL history, with Cincinnati holding a narrow 18-14 all-time lead. Cincy has gone 7-1 against Kansas City since 2008, and Burrow is 3-0 against the Chiefs in his young career. Those three games have been since Jan. 2, 2022, including the 2022 AFC Championship Game which Cincinnati won 27-24 on a last-second field goal.
Bengals at Chiefs: three trends to know
– Joey B might as well be nicknamed Joey Bucks at this point because Burrow has helped Cincinnati cover 20 spreads in his last 25 starts. This is by far the best current streak of any current QB, and one of the best coverage streaks by a QB in sports betting history.
– Cincinnati went 13-5 ATS this season, while Kansas City went just 6-11-1. Worse still, the Chiefs went just 2-6-1 ATS at home, while the Bengals went the NFL’s best 8-2 ATS on the road.
– The UNDER has struck in 10 games for Kansas City and Cincinnati so far this season, including each of those teams’ division games.
Bengals at Chiefs: Three things to watch
Is Patrick Mahomes healthy?
The collective gasp of the Arrowhead crowd last weekend perfectly described the thought that went through everyone’s head when Patrick Mahomes went down: Kansas City has no chance of winning another Lombardi Trophy without its star QB . After a few jumps, two trips to the locker room, x-rays that thankfully came back negative, and some serious tape work resembling my Christmas gift wrapping, Mahomes came back and helped KC secure the “W”. An MRI on Monday confirmed he did indeed have a sprained ankle, but Mahomes assured the masses he would be playing this weekend. How effective will it be, though? Chiefs coach Andy Reid says Mahomes has ‘worked hard on treatment and is doing well’. Sure, Coach, but remember we saw you lying on StateFarm ads about drawing mustaches on your players’ faces. Alas, Mahomes himself posted on Instagram “See you Sunday Chiefs Kingdom!” Either way, betting on Kansas City with its most valuable player, even a bit down, seems like an exercise in volatility.
Can Kansas City’s underrated defense continue to slow Cincinnati’s offense?
Reid and Steve Spagnuolo will need top notch efforts from their defensive unit this weekend, so as not to overwork Mahomes’ ankle and overexpose him to Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard and the underrated pass of the Bengals on the other side of the field. While the last three meetings with Cincinnati might suggest otherwise, the D Chiefs might be up for the formidable challenge of stopping Burrow. Kansas City hasn’t allowed more than 21 first downs or 350 total yards in a game since Dec. 4, and it’s had 10 combined takeaways in six games since then. Chris Jones is arguably the best defensive tackle in the NFL (15.5 sacks this season, fourth), while linebacker Nick Bolton is gobbling up tackles (180, second). With three-fifths of the Bengals offensive line and KC’s defensive depth chart in much better shape than Buffalo’s last week, we should be in for a competitive game for the AFC title.
Kelce and Chase and Higgins, oh my! Which stud playmaker will drop into the clutch?
My “lock stone-cold” from a prop bet last week was “Travis Kelce anytime TD” (-145) because stud tight end always seems to shine the most in the biggest games. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the same for Cincinnati, forming arguably the NFL’s best double. So who will steal the show this Sunday night and help their respective QB to the decisive Super Bowl victory? My bet is on Kelce, who caught 10 of 11 targets for 95 yards and a touchdown when these teams met in the AFC Championship game last year. Chase might as well fire up — the 2021 Rookie of the Year caught seven passes for 97 yards when these teams met earlier this season. No matter what happens, it’s safe to expect a shootout.
Bengals at Chiefs: Stat that matters
28. That’s how many points Cincinnati has averaged over its last five road games despite strong defenses like Buffalo, New England and Tampa Bay. The Bengals averaged 374.6 total yards in those five road wins. Kansas City has allowed an average of 377.6 total yards allowed per game in its three losses this season, compared to 317.5 yards allowed per game in its 14 wins.
Bengals at Chiefs Prediction
The sports betting finally understands how magnificent NFL quarterback Joe Burrow has become or they fully acknowledge that Patrick Mahomes is another ankle kick away from not playing football this season. As we mentioned, this seems like far too volatile a situation to just pick a 2.5 point spread one way or the other. My conviction with Mahomes this week is quite similar to my thought on Jalen Hurts last week – if he’s right he could easily smoke the opposing defense and move forward – but if he’s 75% or below he doesn’t. may not be enough to get by. And if he gets hurt, whoa nelly. Chad Henne may have looked half decent in his huge split tour after Mahomes’ first crash, but he’s hard to count on in extended action. Put a proverbial gun to my head, and I pick the Bengals to win and barely cover. They made me some money last week, and Burrow never encountered a situation too big for him. Against Mahomes, there’s no such thing as a sure thing, so I’d much rather throw Cincy in a +3.5 six-point teaser and call it a conservative dad betting day.
PREDICTION: Bengals 27, Chiefs 24. Cincinnati continues its mad dash of blankets spread out under Burrow (-2.5)and the game is heading to the OVER (46.5) despite some freezing temperatures. You can’t freeze Joey Brr.