There have been two proven ways to win the South West Stakes in Oaklawn. For the horses trained by Bob Baffert, it’s been going to the front lines and staying there. For others, it closed on the rhythm.
History is about to repeat itself one way or another on Saturday. Arab knight (1-1), the morning line favorite, could try to lead from gate to wire again, this time against eight other 3-year-olds who will try to catch him in 3rd grade, $750,000 in point prep for Kentucky Derby 2023.
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Amr Zedan’s $2.3million colt Uncle Mo could become Baffert’s record sixth winner in the South West. Conveyance, Secret Circle, Castaway and Super Ninety Nine had an avant-garde style in common.
Even Newgrange last year never went further than 2 1/2 lengths in third through the first six furlongs. Fourth in the sequence, he was less than three quarters of a length away from making his winning shot.
Conversely, nine of the last 11 winners from the South West who have not been coached by Baffert have come from at least fourth place or no less than three lengths behind at any given call.
These are the past performance lines of South West winners since 2000, according to Equibase:
| Year | Winner | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/4 | Str | Fin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Newgrange | 3 – 2 | 3 – 2 1/2 | 3 – 2 | 4 – 3/4 | 1 |
| 2021 | Essential Quality | 5 – 3 1/2 | 4 – 2 1/2 | 3 – high definition | 1 | 1 |
| 2020 | silver prospector | 6 – 1 3/4 | 3 – 1 1/2 | 3 – 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2019 | Super Steed | 9 – 5 1/4 | 9 – 3 1/2 | 5 – 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2018 | My boy Jack | 8 – 8 1/2 | 9 – 8 1/2 | 8 – 3 3/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Right word | 4 – 3 | 4 – 2 1/2 | 3 – 3 | 2 – 1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Sudden news | 14 – 15 | 14 – 12 1/2 | 12 – 8 1/2 | 5 – 5 1/2 | 1 |
| 2015 | Far right | 9 – 9 3/4 | 8 – 9 | 8 – 4 3/4 | 4 – 3/4 | 1 |
| 2014 | The rugs | 2 – 1/2 | 3 – high definition | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2013 | super ninety nine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2012 | Castaway | 2 – 1/2 | 2 – 1/2 | 2 – high definition | 1 | 1 |
| secret circle | 2 – 1 | 2 – 1 | 2 – high definition | 2 – high definition | 1 | |
| 2011 | Archarch | 5 – 6 1/2 | 4 – 3 | 4 – 3/4 | 1 | 1 |
| 2010 | Transportation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2009 | old-fashioned | 2 – 1 | 2 – 2 | 2 – 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2008 | Dennis of Liege | 5 – 8 1/2 | 5 – 18 | 4 – 9 | 3 – 1/2 | 1 |
| 2007 | Teuflesberg | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2006 | Lawyer Ron | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2005 | greater good | 7 – 9 3/4 | 7 – 11 1/4 | 6 – 4 1/4 | 3 – 4 1/2 | 1 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | 2 – 1 1/2 | 2 – 2 1/2 | 2 – high definition | 1 | 1 |
| 2003 | great idea | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2002 | Private emblem | 4 – 10 | 4 – 8 | 4 – 1 1/4 | 3 – 1 1/2 | 1 |
| Paloma Parilla | 3 – 2 1/2 | 3 – 1/2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2001 | rocket wires | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2000 | afternoon affair | 5 – 4 1/2 | 3 – 3. | 2 – 1 1/2 | 1 | 1 |
Quirin Speed Points, the Brisnet feature that quantifies racing styles, shows just two of the nine South West horses this weekend with an E, or early, designation meaning a likelihood of leading or near the lead on the back stretch of the 1 1/16-mile race. Arabian Knight has an E 6, and the early winner trained by D. Wayne Lukas Western Ghent (20-1) has an E 3. The higher the number between 0 and 8, the more likely a horse is to be ahead in the first round.
Jace’s Road (4-1), Corona Bolt (6-1) and Frosted Departure (15-1) are all E/Ps, i.e. early rush horses, horses that tend to follow or to assess the pace. Red Route One (10-1) and Hit Show (10-1) are P horses, or pressers, who are more likely to be in the middle of the pack. Sun Thunder (10-1) and El Tomate (30-1) are S horses, or closer.
Although the Southwest has been a points prep since the current qualifying system began 10 years ago, it hasn’t had a rich history of producing Kentucky Derby winners, not even going back to its roots as in March 1968 as Southwest Handicap. Only Lil E. Tee in 1992 and Smarty Jones in 2004 graduated from the race to win the roses in Louisville.
A correlation can be drawn between the South West’s penchant for rewarding closings in winter and the Derby’s tendency to reward being forward in early spring. Six of the last nine winners of America’s biggest race have never been further than third place in a classification call. Rich Strike was an 80-1 exception last year. The other two, Country House in 2019 and Mandaloun in 2021, didn’t even cross the finish line first.
Only seven horses from the South West made it to the Derby plateau. This is how they have all done since 2000:
| Year | Horse | quirin | SW | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | barber’s road | S2 | 2nd | 6th |
| 2021 | Essential Quality | E/P 4 | 1st | *3rd |
| 2020 | ||||
| 2019 | cut humor | P4 | 7th | *10th |
| Long Range Toddy | E/P 5 | 3rd | *16th | |
| 2018 | My boy Jack | S0 | 1st | 5th |
| Fighter | P0 | 2nd | 18th | |
| 2017 | Look Lee | S0 | 3rd | 2nd |
| From where | S1 | 7th | 11th | |
| 2016 | Sudden news | S0 | 1st | 5th |
| Whitmore | S0 | 2nd | 19th | |
| 2015 | Mr. Z | E 6 | 3rd | 13th |
| Far right | S0 | 1st | 15th | |
| 2014 | Ride on Curlin | E/P 5 | 3rd | 7th |
| The rugs | E/P 4 | 1st | 15th | |
| 2013 | will support | P3 | 6th | 8th |
| 2012 | ||||
| 2011 | Archarch | P4 | 1st | 15th |
| 2010 | Dublin | S2 | 2nd | 7th |
| Impossible mission | E/P 5 | 3rd | 9th | |
| Transportation | E 8 | 1st | 15th | |
| 2009 | ||||
| 2008 | Dennis of Liege | P2 | 1st | 3rd |
| 2007 | hard spun | E 6 | 4th | 2nd |
| Teuflesberg | E5 | 1st | 17th | |
| 2006 | steppenwolfer | S0 | 2nd | 3rd |
| Lawyer Ron | E/P 6 | 1st | 12th | |
| 2005 | greater good | S2 | ||
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | E/P 7 | 1st | 1st |
| Pro Prado | S2 | 3rd | 13th | |
| 2003 | ||||
| 2002 | Private emblem | E/P 5 | 1st | 14th |
| 2001 | arctic boy | S2 | 2nd | 12th |
| 2000 |
It’s not all about styles. There’s also the coaches’ reluctance to race their best 3-year-olds ahead of Oaklawn’s older, bigger builds, namely the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1). According to the Churchill Downs media guide, the Southwest has a collective Kentucky Derby record of 39:2-2-3, the Rebel of 59:3-2-3 and the Arkansas Derby of 118:7-5 -8.
Seven Kentucky Derby winners have previously raced at Oaklawn, including Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Lil E. Tee in 1992, Grindstone in 1996, Smarty Jones in 2004, Super Saver in 2010, American Pharoah in 2015 and Country House in 2019. Most skipped early prep races, but they all showed up for the Arkansas Derby.
Arabian Knight might be the exception, at least in the minds of Las Vegas Derby bettors. Although he is expected to be transferred to another coach by February 28 due to the suspension of Baffert’s Churchill Downs, he was the 8-1 favorite Wednesday morning at Caesars Sportsbook and the second choice 11-1 behind the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Forte at Circa Des sports.